Speech Psychics

[airpezman]

I was recently at a tournament to help out a friend. I had never seen any of the pieces. After viewing a list of pieces in duo. I predicted which pieces would be in the final round.

EXAMPLE: I said, "Olive Juice" will be in the top 3. It won the tourney.
I just had this "intuition" that "Olive Juice" would beat "Plaza Suite," "Labor Pains," and "Time Flies".

However, if it is based on PERFORMANCE and not the PIECE, how would I be able to play "Speech Psychic" so easily?

QUESTION 1: Is Speech predictable?
QUESTION 2: Should it be? If it is , why should we continue to go to meets.
QUESTION 3: Would you put 1 thousand dollars (honestly) on betting that
someone you know will make nationals in your district.

[megz642]

Many aspects of forensics are completely unpredictable. for example, some people who we predicted would make final rounds at nationals didn't even qual due to parent judges. so after that, i wouldn't bet a cent on certain people making nationals. or even a certain piece doing well. so many factors go into success, whether it's the experience of the judges, the quality of the competition, or completely random stuff.